Oct 25,
Materials prices ease; Bangladesh, Sri Lanka Get IMF funds; More delays at Panama Canal; Must Add AI? Maybe Not?

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Must Add AI.  Maybe Not?

Every website for any tech service is now proudly touting its new AI features.  Each claims that their new sprinkling of AI fairy dust will bring game-changing benefits to users.

Tech insiders are now starting to speak up saying companies are rolling out beta-versions of copycat features that add little value to the user.  

At the same time the real AI power players are not putting AI at the center of their marketing focus.

  • “In the short term, AI is wildly overhyped,” said OpenAI CEO Sam Altman.  
  • “We’ve been developing AI for more than two decades. AI already powers Google’s core products,” per Justin Burr on Google’s AI team. 

LOGISTICS

Freight Rates Weekly

As of November, the Panama Canal Authority will further restrict the number of daily transits to 31 from the normal 36.  This is expected to cause 2-3 day delays per Flexport.

Carriers are working to put a floor under rates, which now face a post-peak lull, per Freightos.

Blank sailings out of China have seen a significant increase following Golden Week. The combination of falling demand and record-high growth in capacity has compelled carriers to increase the number of blank sailings in an effort to prevent rates from further declining, per UPS.

In addition to significant blanked sailings, The Alliance also announced this week that they will suspend one East Coast service starting in mid-November until further notice, per Freightos.

Water levels in the Amazon River at its critical passage points have reached an unprecedented level, making it impossible for container vessels to access the Manaus port.  The Port of Navegantes has been closed since October 4th due to adverse weather conditions, per Flexport.

Month-on-Month ocean and air rate changes … new services … seasonal outlookRead More

INSIDE SOURCING

Sri Lanka & Bangladesh Win IMF Support … For Now

Sri Lanka looks to have finally gotten a positive signal that help is on the way when the IMF issued a staff-level agreement on an aid package.  However the nation still faces serious hurdles including energy prices.

  • The government last week approved an 18% hike in electricity tariffs, the second in eight months, following a 66% increase in February, per Nikkei Asia.
  • Low tax rates have added to the crisis, which worsened when taxes were further reduced in 2019, per the IMF.

Bangladesh also got a staff-level agreement that should enable the nation to get its next payout of about $681 million.  

  • The IMF took a more lenient position in the face of Bangladesh failing to meet previously set targets for foreign reserves and revenues.
  • Analysts warn that if the nation doesn’t show solid improvement, the IMF might withhold further funding.

PODCAST

Core Values Behind Every Great Leader

There’s ongoing debate over which leadership playbook is the best way – and what skills are most important to develop in order to effectively lead an organisation – especially in what looks to be uncertain times.

But what if we didn’t need ‘new skills’.  What if the answer lay in going back to core values, character building and even old fashioned ethics?

In this podcast executive coach Maria Kelly talks about what she sees as the simple, but not always easy-to-follow principles that define good leaders.

You’ll Learn

  • The most important skill today’s leaders need to have.
  • The critical importance of being decisive.
  • Why good leadership often rests on simply being courageous.

🎧  Listen to the podcast

MATERIALS

Materials Price Movement.xlsx

Cotton futures traded around 83 cents per pound, remaining close to July’s lows, due to a bearish demand outlook, particularly from top buyer China.  On the supply side, global production is increasing.

WTI crude oil futures fell to almost $83 this week, on a stronger dollar and signs of weak demand. 

You can find the current Month-on-Month and Year-on-Year prices here.

CURRENCIES

Currencies

The U.S. dollar continued to rise against a basket of currencies on upbeat US data across thirteen data points.

The Euro edged slightly lower to $1.05 after the ECB left interest rates unchanged for the first time in more than a year during its October 2023 meeting.

MARKETS

Interest Rate Outlook:  “Inflation is not going down fast enough. So now … our call to everybody is: buckle up. Make sure that you understand interest rates are here to stay for longer.”  – IMF head Kristalina Georgieva speaking at the Future Investment Initiative in Riyadh (Oct 24-26).

The European Central Bank has kept interest rates unchanged at 4%, ending a streak of 10 consecutive increases.

The US economy expanded at an annual rate of 4.5% in the third quarter, growing at its quickest pace in almost two years, per the Financial Times.

  • This is the fastest pace since the end of 2021 and was driven mainly by a strong job market and high consumer spending, per Bloomberg.
  • Q4 expansion is forecast at 0.7%.
  • Interest rates are currently expect to remain high, per the Financial Times.

Spain’s unemployment rate rose to 11.84% in the third quarter from 11.60% in the second quarter, still a historically low figure.  The labor market is expected to remain buoyant, per ING Bank.

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