⇒ Consumer spending strength is favorably impacting US West Coast container volumes, with increases expected to continue as we approach the end of 2023, according to reports by the Los Angeles/Long Beach port complex. Still, the two ports’ year-to-date volume shows a 20% decline over last year, per UPS.

⇒ More and more carriers are reacting to the current market situation, calling rate levels ‘unsustainable;’.  The expectation is for more blank sailings to hit the market in case demand doesn’t pick up soon, per Flexport.

⇒ Asia – N. Europe rates increased 8% last week and are just 5% below 2019 levels but remain in loss making territory as carriers continue to struggle with overcapacity on the lane as reflected in reports that carriers will push planned early-month GRIs to later in November, per Freightos.

⇒ November GRI was initially announced at $1650-1800 but levels are expected to land closer to $1200. The overall EU trade market remains flat but capacity will be slightly impacted due to the vessel deployment change/suspension in Southeast Asia.  Expect rates to keep dropping, per Flexport.

⇒ On Indian Subcontinent to North America routes, rate levels will remain consistent throughout November as demand and capacity begin to balance due to blank sailings

⇒ Global air cargo tonnages and rates have stabilized following China’s Golden Week. Despite this, no strong indications of a Q4 peak season are apparent, per Flexport.

⇒ Recent increases in e-commerce volumes and significantly fewer passenger flights than in 2019 are likely contributing to rising rates. Asia – N. Europe prices increased 11% last week to $4.30/kg, a 40% increase since early September and their highest level since April, per Freightos.

⇒ Presently, worldwide average air cargo rates are -28% from last year, though they’re up +33% from October 2019, sitting at an average of 2.38 US dollars per kilo, per Flexport.

Month-on-Month ocean and air rate changes … new services … seasonal outlook.  Read More