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LOGISTICS | February 19, 2025

Ocean Rates Fall, Air Cargo Stable

While uncertainty about US tariffs is having a disruptive impact on shippers, overall freight rates are steadily declining both week-on-week and year-on-year. Ocean rates are expected to continue to fall through early Q2.
Trans-Pacific carriers are quoting 25% higher contract rates for the 2025–26 shipping year to recover last year’s losses. However, uncertainty over Red Sea disruptions and potential Trump tariffs is causing shippers to delay contracts, per UPS.
The Suez Canal Authority (SCA) has requested the major shipping lines including Maersk and MSC to resume their operations via the canal as the region returns to a stability. However, carriers remain skeptical about whether it is safe to return to the Red Sea, per UPS.
Asia – Europe rates have fallen nearly 45% since early January. Carriers are increasing blanked sailings and have announced March 1st GRIs of about $1,000/FEU to attempt and push rates back up on these lanes, though there is skepticism that the increases will succeed, per Freightos.
No new blank sailings on Asia to Europe have been announced for late February, resulting in an oversupply of space. This could potentially lead to a further market decline, as demand remains weak. Despite soft market conditions, carriers are maintaining rates at firm levels. We predict more last-minute vessel voiding may occur to counteract excess capacity, per Flexport.
Should the US actually cancel or significantly restrict the entry of parcels from China under the de minimis exemption, Air Cargo rates from China to the US could collapse, per Freightos.