The June 2025 U.S. – China trade talks offered a “framework deal” with the two governments pausing new tariff hikes. It appeared to signal a turn away from the extreme volatility of earlier this year. For a while, it felt like things were finally stabilizing.

But beneath the surface, uncertainty still runs deep. U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports now stand at 55% – far below the 145% spike seen in May, but still a world away from pre-trade war levels. And even though sentiment has improved, few importers are betting big on what comes next.