After a devastating 2020, global trade has exceeded expectations in how quickly it has rebounded. According to recent estimates from the WTO, the volume of world merchandise trade is expected to increase by 8.0% in 2021 after having fallen 5.3% in 2020, having bottomed out in the second quarter of 2020. Trade growth should then slow to 4.0% in 2022, and the effects of the pandemic will continue to be felt as this pace of expansion would still leave trade below its pre-pandemic trend levels, according to the WTO. Dragging down fast recovery is the fact that many nations - both developed and emerging - are still struggling to control COVID cases. The service sector, while recovering in nations with high vaccination rates, is still lagging. <blockquote> <strong>Biggest potential threat to global trade growth: </strong> new COVID variants that could be more contagious and possibly resistant to existing vaccines. <strong>A Not-so-simple Solution:</strong> Vaccines seem to be the answer to combatting COVID. Yet producing the volume needed to vaccinate the entire world's population (twice, since most vaccines require two doses) is a supply chain feat that even experienced supply chain executives seriously underestimated.</blockquote> <h3><b>Vaccines - More Than Just Charity or Diplomacy</b></h3> “Keeping international markets open will be essential for economies to recover from this crisis. As long as large numbers of people and countries are excluded from sufficient vaccine access, it will stifle growth, and risk reversing the health and economic recovery worldwide,” according to WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo‑Iweala. “Manufacturing vaccines requires inputs from many different countries. One leading COVID-19 vaccine includes 280 components sourced from 19 different countries,” she said. “Trade restrictions make it harder to ramp up production. The WTO has helped keep trade flowing during the crisis. Now, the international community must leverage the power of trade to expand access to life-saving vaccines,” she added. <blockquote> <strong>World Trade Outlook Q2</strong> World merchandise trade volume is expected to increase by 8.0% in 2021 after falling 5.3% in 2020, a smaller decline than previously estimated. Trade growth will likely slow to 4.0% in 2022, with the total volume of global trade remaining below the pre-pandemic trend. World GDP at market exchange rates should increase by 5.1% in 2021 and 3.8% in 2022, after contracting by 3.8% in 2020. Merchandise trade in nominal dollar terms fell in 2020 by 8% while commercial services exports declined by 20%. Falling oil prices led to a 35% contraction in trade in fuels in 2020. Travel services were down 63% in 2020 and are not expected to fully recover until the pandemic wanes.</blockquote>