Inflation Generic
The biggest shift is the sudden reopening of China. From a supply chain point of view, this is just one more bump in what has been a long, winding and rocky road.

The Situation in January 2023

Brands are still trying to clear excess inventory after a better-than-expected, but still lackluster, holiday season.  Considering that January is the season for returns, the final measure of how retailers did for Holiday 2022 is still unfolding.

The biggest shift is the sudden reopening of China.  From a supply chain point of view, this is just one more bump in what has been a long, winding and rocky road.

However, Chinese suppliers continue to live up to their reputation of being able to handle even the toughest challenges.  

 

For suppliers, the ability to travel and out of China – go to their factories, visit customers – is game-changing. 

For brands, the opportunity to see suppliers in China is a relief.

However, in the short run as China grapples with new waves of Covid on the heels of it dropping its Zero Covid policy and lifting those dreaded lockdowns, the market will continue to face disruption – just of a different kind.  

The biggest impact on sourcing this month is the return of freight rates to near 2019 levels.  The margin busting costs and inventory chaos brought upon supply chains for the past nearly three years is looking like it’s finally normalized.   

With the global economic outlook quite uncertain, brands will once again be able to implement a quick response model and keep inventories as lean as possible.  For many, this will be crucial to survival.

Now that travel restrictions throughout Asia have been lifted, we’ll start to see more brands taking action on goals to diversify sourcing.  This was difficult to do when you couldn’t actually go and visit factories. 

While most of the media talk centers around moving out of China, in reality brands are looking to reduce their level of dependence on any single nation or supplier – regardless of the country.  And at the same time, there’s also an eye on any new trade agreements that could make it more favorable to source in a previously overlooked nation.

Finally, increasing regulations on sustainability and transparency are putting pressure on both sides of the supply chain to not only green up, but to provide documentation to back that up.  

5 Signals We’re Watching

  1. INVENTORIES.  The successful clearing of 2022 stockpiles will determine the level of new orders that can be placed.  
  2. RECESSION vs SLOWDOWN.  Most analysts see 2023 as a recessionary year.  The question is the intensity.  With unemployment at historic lows, consumers might still spend, but more cautiously.
  3. LOGISTICS.  Freight rates are now near 2019 levels. We’re watching to see that they stay there.
  4. ENERGY CRISIS?  Despite higher prices, the predicted energy crisis – particularly in Europe – has not yet happened.  OPEC sentiment and China’s reopening could impact prices.
  5. INFLATION.  Recent central bank figures indicate that raising interest rates have helped tame inflation.  Rate hikes are expected to remain in play, so it’s now a matter of much higher – and for how much longer.

Login to read this month’s country updates for Bangladesh, Cambodia, China, India and Vietnam.

Also Includes:  U.S. imports of key categories table (Jan-Nov) and EU imports of knits and EU denim imports tables (Jan-Sept).

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