A Reality Check for Tariff Refunds
The promise of tariff refunds in 45 days might be
LOGISTICS | Mar 12, 2025
▪ Ocean prices for Asia – Europe trade fell below last year’s low in recent weeks, while Asia – Mediterranean rates were level with last year, per Freightos.
▪ On Asia – N. America routes, the drop in floating market rates and ample capacity, resulted in the Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) being reduced for March, per Flexport.
▪ The resumption of Red Sea shipping routes is likely to lead to 6% reduction in demand. Coupled with ongoing fleet expansion, these factors are expected to exert significant downward pressure on spot rates, potentially resulting in a 30% to 40% decline compared to 2024 levels, per UPS.
▪ As the deadline for the US to eliminate the de minimis exemption for Chinese imports, there is a growing consensus among shipping and logistics experts that the Trump Administration that US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) will not be ready even to contemplate collecting tariffs on low-value packages until this summer, but others suggest it will never be ready, per Bloomberg Intelligence.
SOURCING & SUPPLY CHAIN
Two-day transit times and duty-free access under USMCA are reshaping
Rising energy prices could be even more disruptive than tariffs
Materials prices face greater upward pressure as geopolitical tensions heat
US tariffs enter a 150-day holding pattern that means continued