Consumer confidence is starting to soften as the persistent US-Iran conflict triggers a broad “energy shock”. This is manifesting through reduced flight schedules by airlines, increased food costs, and rising household utility expenses.

The outlook for both US and EU consumer demand looks softer and more fragile over the next few months, with the US still supported by a decent labor market but facing inflation and geopolitical shocks, and the EU looking weaker with confidence at multi‑year lows and higher inflation expectations.

For brands, this is flagging a pivot in demand planning in order to seize market opportunities – while keeping inventories under tighter control.