Since the pandemic first hit, analysts and economists have expanded their economic forecasts to include an increasingly wide range of letter-shaped scenarios.Having abandon hope of a classic L, U, or W shaped recovery, we’re now looking at what is being referred to as a K-shaped scenario, in which some industries rebound and others flounder. This also illustrates the outlook for consumer spending, especially for the upcoming holiday season.According to a recent report from Deloitte, holiday 2020 in the U.S. could be a rebound for the ‘haves’ (higher income groups) and a continued recession for the ‘have nots’ (lower income groups).Deloitte says that U.S. holiday retail sales could rise between 1% and 1.5% this year, during the November to January period. In 2019, holiday sales grew 4.1%.The weaker forecast is based on reduced spending from lower income groups, who are likely feel less secure about spending.Holiday spending could get a boost if the higher income groups feel more optimistic about the containment of COVID-19 and overall economic recovery.Subdued MoodStill, unemployment remains high, with many sectors still closed or only partially open, including physical retail, restaurants, airlines, and others. Even those who are not personally affected feel trepidation about the future. That, as we know too well, leads to saving rather than spending.Overall retail sales are near or above pre-crisis February levels for most store categories, with more being spent on goods than on services, according to Kiplinger.However ,apparel sales are still 20% below pre-crisis levels and 15% lower for department stores, according to Census Bureau statistics.Kantar Retail also is bearish on holiday spending, saying that “shoppers signal that holiday gift spending might be ho-hum” this year.Resisting RetailLong before the pandemic, there was a growing trend towards ‘buying fewer, but better’ and ‘minimalism’. While most consumers are not likely to opt for austerity, most are already well past the ‘shop till you drop’ mentality that was a key retail sales driver for decades.However, surrounded by uncertainty on many fronts, more consumers are likely to spend less, regardless of their incomes.People across all demographics are starting to shift their attitudes from seeing massive spending as synonymous with a happy holiday.Instead, we expected to see a quiet rise in alternative holiday activities like cooking, baking and crafts - things that consumers began embracing during the months of lockdowns.People will still shop, but there won’t be the compulsion to buy for the sake of adding one more item under the tree.After a tumultuous year that included a pandemic, political strife, wildfires, hurricanes and finally a national election, American consumers might be too fatigued by November to put in two months of hardcore shopping.