
The Next Wave of Retail Growth
Asia and South America are driving retail expansion, but success will depend on precise positioning in the value-driven mid-market.
RETAIL DEMAND
/ Across both regions, rising discounting is weighing on margins, even as freight and FX pressures ease.
Heading into the middle of Q2, US demand looks relatively more resilient, while Europe appears to be more fragile and value‑seeking.
Global macro houses, including Bridgewater and Citadel, expect US retail sales to grow about 3.5% in 2026, down from roughly 4% in 2025, with modest volume growth and inflation around 2.6–3.0%.
In both the US and Europe, rising discounting, especially in value/value‑adjacent retailers, is a key reason behind margin guidance cuts despite tailwinds from easing freight and FX.
Online‑first, DTC and omnichannel leaders are seen as structural winners.
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