Can Retail Cope with An Energy Price Shock?
March 15, 2026
Higher oil and energy costs are expected to squeeze discretionary spending in key markets, putting apparel and other non-essential retail under pressure in Q2.
E-Commerce
On January 19th $8 billion in e-commerce sales could be looking for a new platform. That’s if the impending ban on TikTok in the United States comes into effect as planned.
In 2024, spending on TikTok Shop in the U.S. during January-November reached $6.5 billion. Full-year spending should exceed $8 billion, according to TabCut data.
The potential ban poses a serious threat, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that leverage TikTok for marketing and sales.
However, it could be a windfall for competing social media and ecommerce platforms that would be eager to pick TikTok Shop’s business.
The question is, which platform is likely to be next in line, if TikTok Shop is shut down?
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Markets
Higher oil and energy costs are expected to squeeze discretionary spending in key markets, putting apparel and other non-essential retail under pressure in Q2.
A fragile revenue recovery is facing pressure from tariffs, higher operating costs, and the cost of ongoing transformation programs.
In uncertain markets, heritage brands are rediscovering that reputation, craft, and continuity can outperform reinvention.
Asia and South America are driving retail expansion, but success will depend on precise positioning in the value-driven mid-market.
Winning retailers are abandoning expansion for expansion’s sake, focusing instead on tightly defined assortments built around clear customer value.
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