A Reality Check for Tariff Refunds
The promise of tariff refunds in 45 days might be more a ‘dare to dream’ than precise delivery date.
TARIFF TRACKER
/ The record so far points to a partial, phased system going live relatively soon, with full refunds likely stretching over many months and with important carve‑outs and caveats.
Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has now given the court a first formal progress report. Per that report, the new ACE/CAPE refund system is under active development, partially built, and will roll out in phases over the coming months rather than turning on all at once.
Those interpreting this as ‘its almost ready’ will surely be disappointed.
Since an automated refund system was first announced, CBP has been very careful to add wording about what the probable timeline might actually look like.
The “45 days” target to deliver the system was never likely to happen – and they have continued couch all messaging with various clauses and disclaimers. When read carefully, they give a sharper view of what’s more likely to be the timeline around tariff refunds.
Here is a summary of the most recent (as of March 13, 2026) statements and insights regarding the new ACE/CAPE refund system.
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