SCS Aug 04
Materials prices continue to weaken; This could end inflation and normalize supply chains; Blank sailing support freight rates

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“Previous ‘all-time’ highs are completely irrelevant. It’s not ‘cheap’ because it is down 70%. Forget those prices happened.”  – Bill Gurley, a general partner at venture capital firm Benchmark and one of Silicon Valley’s most respected dealmakers.

LOGISTICS

Freight Rates Aug 4

Maersk (Denmark) expects that the market disruptions that have driven record-high freight rates will continue through the end of the year.  The company raised its full-year earnings before tax to around $37 billion, up 54% from an estimate of $24 billion at the beginning of the year. 

Covid-19 restrictions are impacting cross-border truck transportation in China. The city of Shenzhen reduced the daily cross-border trucks from 3,500 to 1,500, according to UPS.

On Asia to North American routes, blank sailings remain all too common in the market, which carriers are pairing with the low spot rates and demand, said Flexport.

18 blank sailings have been reported for the Asia to Europe trade lane, representing a 14.8% reduction of normal capacity, said UPS.

From Asia to Europe there has been no peak season and demand has been slowing down. However, port congestion in Europe, particularly Hamburg and Rotterdam, has reached critical levels causing further delays and late return of vessels to Asia, said Flexport.

SUPPLY CHAIN IMPACTS

Bullwhip supply chain generic

How The Bullwhip Effect Could End Inflation and Normalize Supply Chains

Could a slowdown in consumer spending and high inventory levels be the force that’s needed to right what’s gone wrong with supply chains?  Read more  

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MARKETS

The Bank of England has raised interest rates by 0.5 percentage points to 1.75%. Markets are now bracing for the BoE to push interest rates above 2.5% by the end of 2022, up from 1.75% currently. 

  • It expects inflation above 13% this year driven by surging gasoline prices.

MATERIALS SOURCING

Kaihara hero

Japanese Denim Finds Manufacturing Based Outside of Japan

Looking for an affordable place to produce its high quality denim, Kaihara considered many Southeast Asia countries. It was seeking a place that could meet Japanese quality standards, had a comprehensive domestic supply chain and access to reliable infrastructure.  Read more

MATERIALS

Materials Prices Aug 4

Prices for fiber and yarns continued to soften this week on weaker demand.

Cotton prices remain fairly stable and are down about 35% from Q2 the record highs. But even though consumer demand is slowing, many factories feel that cotton yarn could be short-supplied in the current cotton season ending September 2022, which could drive up prices again.

WTI crude futures stabilized near $91 per barrel as the market faced more modest supply increases from OPEC+ against rising US crude inventories as American are driving less miles than in the summer of 2020, despite there being no pandemic restrictions now.

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