China-US ocean rates went unchanged for a third consecutive week, even as China’s manufacturing came back online. A Golden Week record high level of ocean capacity was kept available over the break, possibly in response to regulator pressure to reduce cancelled sailings, and likely helped keep rates level, according to Eytan Buchman, CMO at Freightos.
Strong volumes are predicted for at least the rest of the month and likely beyond, but any mid-month rate increase is still expected to be minimal, even as current demand is keeping space on the now full and even extra supply of ships extremely tight. The resulting equipment shortages and poor reliability are still a big problem for shippers.
After a record volume of global imports to the US in August and double-digit annual volume gains in September, the NRF is predicting October volumes to be only 1% behind last year. And though they expect a drop off starting in November – possibly impacted by the delay of additional government stimulus – there are other indications that restocking and pre-ordering of spring shipments ahead of Chinese New Year in February could keep volumes elevated into next year.
The volume surge has been partially driven by a shift to eCommerce, including from many SMB eCommerce sellers. SMB importers using the Freightos.com marketplace to book freight, shipped a record number of monthly orders in July, and a 24% increase in August compared to last year.
But these small businesses not only have had to contend with elevated ocean and air prices and shifting policies from distribution channels like Amazon, but now will face higher costs and less reliability during peak season as they try to fulfill customer orders as well.
